Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Motley Fool forecasts strong Adobe
If you've ever done anything creative on a computer -- except perhaps writing fiction -- you've seen the content creation tools Adobe (Nasdaq: ADBE) makes a living out of. The company releases second-quarter earnings Thursday night, so we're checking up on this mighty, mighty software creator for you.

What analysts say:

  • Buy, sell, or waffle? Thirty-one analyst firms follow Adobe. There are 21 buy ratings, 10 holds, and no sell recommendations. Our Motley Fool CAPS players have issued over 600 ratings on the stock, giving it a solid four-star rating.
  • Revenues. Management guidance points to a $700 million to $740 million range, and the average Wall Street forecast says $728 million. That's 14% above the year-ago $635 million.
  • Earnings. The official guidance zone ranges from $0.34 to $0.36 per share, and the analyst consensus falls exactly between the endpoints at $0.35 per share. That's up from $0.31 last year.

What management says:
In the last earnings report, CEO Bruce Chizen prepared us for what he called the biggest product launch in Adobe's history. More on that below. Chizen also said that he was "excited about our opportunities and bullish about our prospects for another year of strong performance."

What management does:
The slipping gross margins are hardly ideal, but they're acceptable in the light of tasty revenue growth. A similar bottom-line downtrend in margins was just reversed, but trailing dollar earnings have actually declined lately.


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